The Texas Tribune reports that former Bush strategist and ABC News political analyst Matthew Dowd announced today that he is considering an independent bid to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in 2018's midterm elections.
Dowd has been active in Texas politics with both parties for the past three decades, but has been most active from the late-90s on in Republican politics, having worked on both of George W. Bush's presidential campaigns. In 2007 he moved out of Bush's orbit over the Iraq War, and has used social media and his platform on ABC News to question the continued viability of the two-party system.
Should Dowd go forward with an independent bid for the Senate, he is not going to win. Republicans have won every statewide race in Texas since 1994, and even though Sen. Cruz's popularity in Texas decreased after his failed presidential bid, two years is a long time in politics. But there is a slim chance that he could narrow the margin between Cruz and the Democratic sacrifice, which would combine with Trump's reduced margin in the presidential contest to cause both sides of the aisle to begin ringing purple alarm bells and screaming about the "Austinization" of Texas.
As a Texan myself, I do think that there is a narrow chance that Texas could become more competitive over the next decade, but it isn't happening that soon, and it definitely isn't happening for a third-party.
- Greg.B
Thursday, January 5, 2017
Wednesday, December 14, 2016
Electoral College Meets Monday
The Electoral College will meet Monday in each state capitol and the District of Columbia to officially make Donald Trump President-Elect. During the Nov 8 Election, Donald Trump won the popular vote in enough states to win 306 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton's 232, well above the 270 vote threshold necessary to become President.
Several self-styled "Hamilton Electors" pledged to Clinton have said that they will defect from the Democratic ticket and vote for a moderate Republican candidate, in hopes of getting at least 38 of their Republican counterparts to do the same. As of this writing, only one Republican elector - Texas elector Chris Suprun, has publicly said that they will not vote for Trump.The consensus candidate appeared to have been Ohio Governor and Republican primary candidate John Kasich, but Gov. Kasich has publicly asked electors to not vote for him.
Faithless electors are rare, in fifty-eight presidential elections there have only been 157, 63 of whom defected from losing Candidate Horace Greeley in 1872 when he died before the electors met, and they have never changed the results of an election. In recent elections, faithless electors have either been protest votes, such as a DC elector abstaining in 2000 in protest of the city's lack of a vote in Congress, or the result of carelessness, like when a Minnesota elector cast a vote for a "John Ewards" in 2004.
Liberal hopes that the Electoral College would revolt and make Hillary Clinton president are likely to be dashed - but as stories of Russian hacking propagate and as Clinton's margin over Trump in the national popular vote approaches three million, it is likely we will see more faithless electors than in any recent election. But even if there are somehow enough defectors to keep Trump from getting to 270, all that it would accomplish is that the election would be thrown to the House of Representatives, which would in all likelihood elect Trump anyway.
- Greg.B
Tuesday, December 13, 2016
Rep. Zinke Tapped for Interior
CORRECTION; Sen. Heitkamp was being considered for Secretary of Energy, not for Secretary of the Interior. The position of Secretary of the Interior was expected to go to Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R - WA-05), but that was never official.
The original post is as follows;
President-Elect Donald Trump chose Rep. Ryan Zinke (R MT-AL) to be his Secretary of the Interior.
Zinke fits the mold of an Interior Secretary, he's on the House Subcomittee on Energy and Mineral Resources, and he hails from a Western state, as the Secretary of the Interior usually does. But his nomination is something of a surprise, as the general guess from almost everyone was that Trump was considering Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) for the position.
Having a token member of the opposition would allow him to claim that his Cabinet is bipartisan, and - because her confirmation would have triggered a special election within 90 days to replace her - it would have expanded the Republican's narrow Senate majority as well. But that's just another example of the mystery wrapped in an enigma wrapped inside a fitted suit that is Donald Trump.
The pick is a blessing in disguise for the blue team; Zinke was a likely prospective challenger to Sen. John Tester (D-MT), so his removal from the playing field improves their chances of holding the seat in 2018.
- Greg.B
The original post is as follows;
President-Elect Donald Trump chose Rep. Ryan Zinke (R MT-AL) to be his Secretary of the Interior.
Zinke fits the mold of an Interior Secretary, he's on the House Subcomittee on Energy and Mineral Resources, and he hails from a Western state, as the Secretary of the Interior usually does. But his nomination is something of a surprise, as the general guess from almost everyone was that Trump was considering Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) for the position.
Having a token member of the opposition would allow him to claim that his Cabinet is bipartisan, and - because her confirmation would have triggered a special election within 90 days to replace her - it would have expanded the Republican's narrow Senate majority as well. But that's just another example of the mystery wrapped in an enigma wrapped inside a fitted suit that is Donald Trump.
The pick is a blessing in disguise for the blue team; Zinke was a likely prospective challenger to Sen. John Tester (D-MT), so his removal from the playing field improves their chances of holding the seat in 2018.
- Greg.B
Two New Trump Cabinet Picks
President-Elect Donald Trump made two new picks for his cabinet today, choosing former Texas Governor Rick Perry for Secretary of Energy, and Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson for Secretary of State.
Trump presumably doesn't remember that Gov. Perry wanted to eliminate the Department of Energy during his 2012 campaign, (but maybe he doesn't either), but his nomination will easily sail through Congress regardless.
Tillerson makes some sense as a Secretary of State, having spent years lobbying foreign governments on behalf of his company, but he may face some opposition from members of both parties over ties to Russian president Vladimir Putin. All it would take is three Republican defectors to keep him from taking the seat, and Senators McCain (R-AZ), Rubio (R-FL), and Graham (R-SC) have voiced concerns about the pick. Mr. Trump is already the least popular President-Elect since records started being kept in 1981, he can't afford to burn political capital on a protracted nomination battle, especially if he's still dismissing the CIA's investigation into Russian meddling in the election when he takes office.
There's a good chance that Trump will stick with Tillerson, but there's also a good chance that this is a trial balloon meant to make his actual pick seem more like a comprimise, and if he does stick with him he's risking alienating the Russia hawks on the Senate Foreign Relations Committe.
- Greg.B
Trump presumably doesn't remember that Gov. Perry wanted to eliminate the Department of Energy during his 2012 campaign, (but maybe he doesn't either), but his nomination will easily sail through Congress regardless.
Tillerson makes some sense as a Secretary of State, having spent years lobbying foreign governments on behalf of his company, but he may face some opposition from members of both parties over ties to Russian president Vladimir Putin. All it would take is three Republican defectors to keep him from taking the seat, and Senators McCain (R-AZ), Rubio (R-FL), and Graham (R-SC) have voiced concerns about the pick. Mr. Trump is already the least popular President-Elect since records started being kept in 1981, he can't afford to burn political capital on a protracted nomination battle, especially if he's still dismissing the CIA's investigation into Russian meddling in the election when he takes office.
There's a good chance that Trump will stick with Tillerson, but there's also a good chance that this is a trial balloon meant to make his actual pick seem more like a comprimise, and if he does stick with him he's risking alienating the Russia hawks on the Senate Foreign Relations Committe.
- Greg.B
Monday, December 12, 2016
Introductions
Hi,
Here at Election Predictor, I'll be tracking presidential, legislative, and gubernatorial elections in the United States.
After virtually every prediction based on polling managed to miss the 2016 presidential election, I figured "I could do a better job!". So, I decided to try my hand at it this year.
I'll be starting off with 2017's off-year elections, which include four (as of this writing) special elections to the House of Representatives and gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey. You can find the pages for my preliminary predictions up top.
- Greg.B
Here at Election Predictor, I'll be tracking presidential, legislative, and gubernatorial elections in the United States.
After virtually every prediction based on polling managed to miss the 2016 presidential election, I figured "I could do a better job!". So, I decided to try my hand at it this year.
I'll be starting off with 2017's off-year elections, which include four (as of this writing) special elections to the House of Representatives and gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey. You can find the pages for my preliminary predictions up top.
- Greg.B
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