Last Updated Dec 14, 2016
- CA-34; Incumbent; Xavier Becerra (D); The Los Angeles based district was already very blue before it was redrawn after the 2010 Census. And after it was redrawn, incumbent Xavier Becerra defeated Republican challenger Stephen C. Smith by just over 67 points. By the next election cycle, the California Republican Party didn’t bother to field a candidate. After Becerra leaves to replace Senator-elect Kamala Harris as California Attorney General, I have a feeling that they still won't field a candidate.
Preliminary Prediction; Democratic Hold
- GA-06; Incumbent; Tom Price (R); Tom Price has held this district in the Atlanta suburbs for over a decade, and when the Democrats have bothered to contest the seat, he has beaten them with anywhere between 60% and 79% of the vote.
Preliminary Prediction; Republican Hold
- KS-04; Incumbent; Mike Pompeo (R); The last time that the district centered on Wichita elected a Democrat was Dan Glickman in 1977. He held his seat for nearly two decades until the Contract with America wave of 1994 gave him the boot, and the Republicans have held the seat ever since.
Preliminary Prediction; Republican Hold
- MT-At large; Incumbent; Ryan Zinke (R); Montana may be very red at the presidential level, but at the state level, and in Congress, the blue team has had some successes. Incumbent Democratic governor Steve Bullock won re-election this year by a five point margin, and one of its two Senators, Jon Tester, squeaked out victories by narrow margins in 2006 and 2012. The former was a wave year for the Democrats and the latter was a Presidential year where he could ride Obama's coattails. In the House, the state is consistently Republican, and has been since 1996. Zinke was likely to leave his seat at the end of his term to challenge Jon Tester for his seat in the Senate, but being tapped by Trump for the Department of the Interior has put the kabash on that plan. Still, I'm fairly confident that the at-large district will be safe for the red team.
Preliminary Prediction; Republican Hold
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